Confusion Reigns Supreme

Source: Roger Wiegand, WeBeatTheStreet. 

“Gold isn’t just another commodity. Gold is money. Some day an international monetary crisis may rudely awaken us to this reality.” –Mark Skousen, Gold Newsletter, May, 1997, from James U. Blanchard’s Golden Insights.

With year-end portfolio balancing and fund managers striving for bonuses, this transition time among major markets is blanketed with crisis, making trading and investing difficult to say the least. We think we now have enough technical and fundamental data to forecast most of our markets deep into 2009. The next few months are fraught with danger and blessed with superb opportunities.

Proven laws of fundamentals,…

Rejoicing in the Woes of Silver

If diamonds are a girl’s best friend, and everything that glitters is gold, where did silver go wrong?

This is precisely the question making the rounds among precious metals enthusiasts these days. How is it that silver took such a beating recently, while gold escaped relatively unscathed? Was it, as some suggest, manipulation by a dark, totalitarian cohort that seeks to rule the world and all its wealth with impunity? Was it the collusion of banks looking to profit from a manipulative short sale scheme?

Those claims we’ll address when time and space permit.

But first, the damage assessment.

Silver stocks were…

Commodities Corner: No Rest For The Wicked…Or Gas, Corn and Silver

Welcome to another installment of our bi-weekly round-up of what’s been happening in the world of commodities. Once again, there’s been no shortage of wild action, so let’s get right to it.

Oil Resting For The Moment

The energy markets took a much-needed breather and retracement over the last few sessions. Since the oil market was reaching unsustainable heights, this was bound to happen, and it did.

Whether it continues to regain its lost ground and make newer all-time highs is yet to be seen, but it is still driving all the other commodities markets at this time.

Crude oil topped out at $147.27 /barrel…

Contrariana: Silver Prices Not Ready to Rocket: Been There; Done That

The bloom is off the rose in Silver. It peaked in March 2008 at the end of a five-wave rise which began in August 1999. That peak will not be exceeded within the foreseeable future. Silver is headed for $12.50, in fits and starts – a large down-up-down pattern.

“All the king’s horses and all the king’s men…..” And all of the fundamental reasons why Silver should rise will amount to naught. They simply will not make any difference.

Perhaps one reason for that is that the fundamentals, which seem strong now, will disintegrate. It is a mistake to project present facts…

SILVER SAVES INVESTORS BIG AND SMALL

In case you want a handy way to keep tabs on how bad things get, Anthony Cherniawski of the Practical Investor reports that Money.CNN.com recently “reintroduced the concept of the ‘Misery Index’”, which is an interesting metric produced by combining the rate of inflation plus the rate of unemployment, which “was last heard of in the 1980’s” when both of the rates were soaring and people were miserable.

He notes that using “official” numbers of 3.9 % inflation with 5% unemployment produces “a current Misery Index of only 8.9″, which he says is “not far from the Misery Index’s low of…