Eurozone Enters First Recession, U.S. to Follow

The Eurozone – the 15 countries that use the euro – has officially slipped into its first recession, as the region’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.2% in both the second and third quarters of 2008. Analysts anticipate the recession will carry into 2009 before easing and induce another round of rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB).

Germany, Italy and Ireland have already officially entered into recessions, posting back-to-back quarters of negative growth. France narrowly avoided a recession with third-quarter growth of 0.1%. The economy of 27-nation European Union (EU) also shrank by 0.2% in the three…

For the U.S. Economy in the New Year, the Pain Will Precede the Promise

If there’s a proverb that captures the outlook for the U.S. economy in the New Year, it’s the one that says: “It’s always darkest before the dawn.”

Regardless of any formal announcement of whether or not the United States drops into an actual recession, the ongoing credit crisis guarantees a contraction of the American economy by virtually every measure we know. That period of darkness will be marked by a dramatic slowdown in economic activity, as well as by rising unemployment, additional declines in U.S. stock prices, and constant volatility. It could last as long as 12-18 months.

But when the dawn…

Recession Fears Hit Home as World Markets Plummet and U.S. Economy Contracts

Fear of a global recession is quickly becoming reality as world markets have lost $10 trillion in value in the month of October and the U.S. economy almost certainly contracted in the third quarter.

“The growing reality is that this is not just a slowdown, but a true recession,” Joel Naroff, president and chief economist of Naroff Economic Advisors told Money Morning Friday. “Europe and Asia can no longer deny U.S. problems are also hitting there.”

Friday was the 79th anniversary of 1929’s “Black Thursday,” when U.S. stocks were decimated at the start of the Great Depression. And while U.S. markets weren’t quite as…

Slowdown in Consumer Spending Could Lead to Recession by Year-End

Consumer spending, responsible for the bulk of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), slowed in July as the effects of the government’s stimulus package tapered off.

The Commerce Department announced that consumer spending grew at a 0.2% rate in July. But on an inflation-adjusted basis, consumer spending dropped 0.4%, as high prices took their toll on the household budgets of strapped consumers.

“The temporary impact of the stimulus has passed, and it looks like consumer spending is on track to decline in real terms in the third quarter,” John Ryding, the chief economist at RDQ Economics, told The New York Times. “It’s…

Sentiment Buoyed by Lower Oil, But Consumers Still Certain of Recession

Consumer sentiment improved for the second consecutive month, as lower commodities prices picked the index of consumer confidence up from a 28-year low.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers announced its index of consumer confidence inched up a half-point to 61.7 in early August from 61.2 in late July. However, the index fell just shy of economists’ median forecast of 62.0, according to a recent poll conducted by Reuters.

“Consumers still remain pretty pessimistic,” Arun Raha, a senior economist at Swiss Re (OTC ADR: SWCEY) in New York, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “This little-higher number is probably…