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Right on Schedule: Revisiting 3 Stages of Bear Market Rally
When someone says, “it’s different this time,” what happens next is rarely surprising.
We know it’s never different this time.
The thing is though it takes a bit of time to remember that.
For instance, the implicit “it’s never different this time” promise is the biggest problem facing the Democrats push for healthcare reform.
It’s a new entitlement program. And history has proven time and again, in its current form the odds of it reducing costs, increasing efficiency, and making the healthcare system better for consumers are pretty slim. It’s really only a matter of time until the well-documented consequences of the…
18Nov2009 | Q1 Publishing | 0 comments | ContinuedRethinking the China Bubble
“It’s the only place we could take a company in a developed industry and double our business each year for five years. Where else can you start out with $5 million in sales and be making $35 million in practically no time?”
That’s what one of the world’s leading Chinese financiers told me over dinner last night.
It has caused me to rethink the growing bubble in Chinese markets. And that we may have thought a bit too much, looking too closely at key economic fundamentals like electricity consumption and age demographics in the past.
As we’ve professed throughout this rally at…
5Nov2009 | Q1 Publishing | 0 comments | Continued3 Moves You Will Not Regret Taking Now
Most investors are still nervous.
The S&P 500 has reached its highest point since September 2008. After that time though, it went on to fall 26% in two months.
Earnings season is in full swing. And with each report we see top line revenues and bottom line earnings are not rebounding nearly as fast as stocks have.
The housing market is still proving troublesome for banks too. Aside from the shadow inventory, rising foreclosures, and the expiration of the $8,000 subsidy for home buyers, bank right-offs are still on the rise.
Then there’s unemployment, tax hikes, etc.
Basically, there’s not too much to be…
20Oct2009 | Q1 Publishing | 0 comments | ContinuedThe Bull Market No One is Talking About
The financial world didn’t get its relief yesterday. The bailout plan and any accompanying reprieve just weren’t in the cards. The Dow tumbled and investors rushed to the exits.
I’m not going to harp on the bad news again, I’m sure you’ve heard it all by now. That’s because opportunity is knocking right now.
I will say the bailout plan, or some form of it, will be formalized and approved. Too many politicians have too much riding on it. And then all will go back to normal…for a few days.
We could even get a nice bounce in the markets following…
1Oct2008 | Q1 Publishing | 1 comment | ContinuedWhat to do During a Market “Adjustmentâ€
“I know Americans are concerned about the adjustments that are taking place in our financial markets.” – President Bush
Adjustment!?!
What on earth is a financial market “adjustment?â€
Despite the sugar-coating, President Bush did get one thing right, Americans are concerned. More like afraid. Fear has taken over the markets. And I’ve got to tell you, I’m loving every second of it…and you should be too.
The U.S. economy has plunged into recession. Unemployment has surged more than 50% in the past two years. Multi-billion dollar investment banks like Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and Merrill Lynch that leveraged themselves against the housing market…
22Sep2008 | Q1 Publishing | Comments Off | ContinuedRUST BELT REVIVAL: FROM DOOM TO BOOM
The locals call it “The Pointes.â€
Gross Point was one of the highest rent neighborhoods in the country. It sits between Detroit and Lake St. Clair. Its wooded scenery, mild summer weather, and proximity to industrial areas have made it a popular residential neighborhood for industrial titans for a century.
The Pointes was one of the hottest real estate markets in the 1920’s. You had to have a mansion in Gross Pointe If you were an executive in Detroit’s booming auto industry.
Flash forward 90 years and we’ve got a completely different picture. There are “for sale†signs hanging off a lot…
8Sep2008 | Q1 Publishing | Comments Off | ContinuedCOMMODITIES: BRIEF CORRECTION OR BURSTING BUBBLE?
“When investors cast aside the lessons of history, those lessons come back to haunt them.†– Martin Meyer, Markets
It’s a tough time to be an investor. A financial crisis and housing downturn in the United States has dragged down the markets. The world’s largest economy is headed straight for a recession. Meanwhile, inflation is rising in the U.S. and downright surging around the world.
Investors are very afraid right now. Over the medium term, however, the global economy is still strong. Copper, one of the best economic indicators, is still well above $3 and doesn’t show much weakness. The economy will…
26Aug2008 | Q1 Publishing | Comments Off | Continued
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