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Offbeat Predictions for 2009
In this week’s article, I wanted to follow up my article from last week – Predictions for 2009 - and this time offer some offbeat predictions for 2009. First, however, I wanted to make a few observations about making prognostications. Many times prognosticators look to the past for patterns which will repeat themselves in the future.
I myself look to history quite often, searching for parallels to what is happening today. However, I always keep in mind that famous Mark Twain quote – “History doesn’t repeat itself, at best it sometimes rhymes”. The consensus Wall Street deflationists are ignoring this bit…
7Jan2009 | Oxbury Research | 0 comments | ContinuedWhy this recession won’t be that severe
If I’m wrong, though, the battle will indeed have a bad ending
I’ve been very accurate in my ‘big picture’ forecasts over the years. Nine years ago, in 1999, I wrote a book Riding the Bear – How to Prosper in the Coming Bear Market. In it I said the market was in a bubble similar to that of 1929, and the worst bear market since that of 1929-32 was just around the corner. I was told that was ‘dinosaur-thinking’. The popular book of the time was Dow 36,000. But, a few months later the severe 2000-2002 bear market began,…
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