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Could Oil Supply Fall 20 Million BPD Over Next Three Years?
Randy Ollenberger, managing director of oil and gas research at BMO Capital Markets, said global oil supply could decline by as much as 20 million barrels a day over the next three years if the oil industry stops investing new capital, whether by building new projects or sustaining existing ones, because oil prices are too low. This would dwarf a decline in demand of about 2.25 million barrels a day over the same period.
"The market is fixated on the demand side and ignoring the supply side, and if oil prices remain at these levels, what we will see is…
29Jan2009 | The Real Deal | 0 comments | ContinuedThe Ghost of Crude Oil Futures (Part 2)
Happy New Year.
Welcome is the psychological reset of the scorecard to our portfolios. Most investors are eager to pretend that the new year will begin with a clean slate, with fresh money and no losses glaring at them from half-opened portfolio statements.
The daunting truth is that, for the most part, investors large and small have experienced devastating losses this past year. Remarkably, this actually bodes well for new investors (as well as the market in general) because although little has actually changed from December 31st to January 1st, psychologically there is more optimism due to the sheer desire for something…
2Jan2009 | Oxbury Research | 0 comments | ContinuedGlobal Oil Demand: Are You Ready for Gasoline Under a Buck a Gallon?
When I started driving, gasoline still contained lead and regular was selling for 29 cents a gallon. My father remembers 10 cents a gallon.
While it’s highly unlikely we’ll ever see those prices again, you could see gasoline below $1 a gallon, and it just might hit $0.75 a gallon. It might not be in time for Christmas, but the Easter Bunny might leave it in your Easter Basket.
That’s not just wishful thinking on my part: The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) most recent monthly forecast (released just yesterday) indicates year-over-year global oil demand will shrink in 2008 for the first time…
16Dec2008 | Investment U | 0 comments | ContinuedIEA report says global oil supply and consumption unsustainable
Oil prices will rebound to more than $100 a barrel as soon as the world economy recovers, and will exceed $200 by 2030, the International Energy Agency will say in its flagship report to be published next week.
While market imbalanOil prices will rebound to more than $100 a barrel as soon as the world economy recovers, and will exceed $200 by 2030, the International Energy Agency will say in its flagship report to be published next week.
While market imbalances could temporarily cause prices to fall back, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the era of cheap oil is…
Four Ways to Fight the “Oil-Flation Epidemicâ€
Want to know what the price of a barrel of oil will be in eight years?
Exactly $119.50 a barrel.
There’s no shortage of pundits predicting where oil prices are heading. And every day seems to bring new reasons to change the forecast – a resurgent dollar, Americans curtailing their driving habits, oil supply reports… The list goes on.
But the guys who really know the future of oil prices are those sitting right in the driver’s seat – oil producers.
Every day, they make bets about the direction of petro prices on the futures market. And right now, they’re telling you – in…
3Sep2008 | Money Morning | Comments Off | ContinuedHow Low Will Oil Go?
A few weeks ago, I wrote a column commenting that the price of oil had outstripped fundamentals and was running on fumes. So count me unsurprised that oil has plunged $32 from its high of $147.27 on July 11.
A reader recently wrote to ask just how low will oil go? Unfortunately, my crystal ball is in the shop this week. (And next week isn’t looking good either.)
But let’s take a dispassionate look at what’s happening with oil, beginning with the obvious: No one from Ben Bernanke to T. Boone Pickens can tell you how high or how low oil is…
13Aug2008 | Investment U | Comments Off | ContinuedCashing in on Commodities: What’s Driving the Oil Bull, How Much Further It Will Go, and How Investors Can Profit
Exactly 12 months ago, West Texas Intermediate crude oil was trading at just under $63 a barrel.
Yesterday (Thursday) futures prices for that benchmark grade of crude oil hit the latest in a succession of record highs, punching through the $135-a-barrel mark on the New York Mercantile Exchange, before sliding back.
In other words, in only a single year, crude-oil prices have more than doubled, soaring 115% – and setting 27 separate new records along the way. And while a short-term correction may be in the offing – especially with fears of a U.S. recession ebbing – the reality is that oil…
23May2008 | Money Morning | Comments Off | ContinuedMoney Morning Boosts Oil Target Price to $225 a Barrel, Thanks to Continued Scarcity, Burgeoning Demand in China
Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald – one of the first global financial gurus to predict triple-digit oil prices – has boosted his target price for crude oil from $187 to $225.
The case for the target-price increase of 20% was very clear.
“The math is really simple here,” Fitz-Gerald said in an e-mail interview from China, where he was heading an investment-research tour. “We are burning through supplies at a rate that’s four times to five times faster than we’re discovering new reserves. Throw in a few [surprises] … perhaps a terrorist event …and add in the accelerating use of oil…
8May2008 | Money Morning | Comments Off | Continued
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