Election 2008: Taking a Financial Flyer on the Race for the U.S. Presidency

A Portuguese online bank, Banco Best, is offering deposits tied to the results of the U.S. presidential election: If U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., wins the White House, Banco Best will pay 8% for the period between the deposit and Nov. 4; if Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., wins, the bank will pay 2%. That reflects the general preference for Obama held in Europe; it’s worth noting that the bank’s not offering an equivalent deposit product biased the other way, which by all the rules of hedging it should be (opening branches in Arizona and Wasilla, Alaska, where demand might be expected…

Election 2008: A McCain Victory Won’t Mean Same Old Republican Story

One thing is clear about John McCain’s economic policies: They won’t be a mere continuation of George W. Bush’s policies. They can’t afford to be. While Bush’s tax cuts have been highly beneficial both to the stock market and to investors directly, the Bush Administration has taken what was a $150 billion federal budget surplus and transformed it into a $400-billion-plus deficit. That’s at a time when stock markets and real estate markets have been ebullient, producing lots of bonuses and capital gains to tax.

Most of the deficit increase has resulted from sloppiness on spending; only about one third of…

The Intellectually Barren Offshore Drilling Debate

At least one of Matt Simmons’s forecasts is not yet bearing fruit — his 2006 prediction that Peak Oil would come to dominate the 2008 campaign. For the debate over offshore drilling that’s erupted this week has shed absolutely no light on the real issues.

For starters, there’s a highly disingenuous calculus behind the flip-flops of John McCain and Florida Governor Charlie Crist, who now favor offshore drilling: They’re sending a message, implicit but unmistakable, that allowing more offshore drilling will somehow put a voter’s Labor Day getaway this year, heretofore unaffordable, within reach. It will, of course, do no such thing.

That does…

Election 2008: Obama or McCain – U.S. May Suffer Either Way

As Barack Obama closes in on the Democratic presidential nomination, investors should focus their minds around one uncomfortable fact: Whether it’s Obama or Republican John McCain who wins the White House, expect some policy changes that won’t sit well with investors – or with the U.S. economy.

This could make for several rough years for U.S. investments, underscoring yet again the importance of searching out profit plays overseas.

That’s why it’s crucial that we understand just what each candidate is likely to do should he reach office. Interestingly, there are three areas where the two presidential hopefuls seem to be in agreement.…