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For the U.S. Economy in the New Year, the Pain Will Precede the Promise
If there’s a proverb that captures the outlook for the U.S. economy in the New Year, it’s the one that says: “It’s always darkest before the dawn.”
Regardless of any formal announcement of whether or not the United States drops into an actual recession, the ongoing credit crisis guarantees a contraction of the American economy by virtually every measure we know. That period of darkness will be marked by a dramatic slowdown in economic activity, as well as by rising unemployment, additional declines in U.S. stock prices, and constant volatility. It could last as long as 12-18 months.
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Market Milestones to Watch for in the Months to Come
With the whipsaw trading we’ve seen of late, it appears that the U.S. financial markets are already chewing through the post-election honeymoon. I have to say that I, for one, am relieved that’s the case because it signals that the markets are already returning to normal.
I realize it may not feel that way, but there’s one very important thing to remember: We nearly always seem to receive the best news near, or at, market tops, and the worst news near, or at, market bottoms. Although that seems contradictory, it actually makes sense. And investors can take some solace in the…
13Nov2008 | Money Morning | Comments Off | Continued
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