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What the Index of Leading Economic Indicators is Really Telling Us
The Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) is an outstanding tool to predict recessions. This index is reported monthly and is made up of economic components that can reflect upcoming changes in the overall economy. Since 1960 it has been extremely reliable, and it played an important role in my 2007 recession forecast.
Of course there’s no perfect indicator, and the LEI is no exception. Its handicap is a huge time lag. In fact, it may take up to six quarters from the time the LEI’s recession signal is given until the arrival of the downturn.
And the…
24Jun2009 | Money and Markets | 0 comments | Continued
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