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Leading Economic Indicators Point to a Continuation of the Economic Rebound
The Conference Board Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) has a very good track record in forecasting recessions …
It gave advance warnings for each of the past eight U.S. recessions including the double-whammy recession of the early 1980s and the recent one.
That’s why I believe that it may be a good idea to keep following this indicator’s readings.
I prefer the LEI’s year-to-year percent change to get a glimpse of the U.S. economy’s future. During the current business cycle this version of the indicator made its low in March 2009 at -4 percent. From there it improved every month…
4Nov2009 | Money and Markets | 0 comments | ContinuedWhat the Index of Leading Economic Indicators is Really Telling Us
The Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) is an outstanding tool to predict recessions. This index is reported monthly and is made up of economic components that can reflect upcoming changes in the overall economy. Since 1960 it has been extremely reliable, and it played an important role in my 2007 recession forecast.
Of course there’s no perfect indicator, and the LEI is no exception. Its handicap is a huge time lag. In fact, it may take up to six quarters from the time the LEI’s recession signal is given until the arrival of the downturn.
And the…
24Jun2009 | Money and Markets | 0 comments | Continued
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