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The Commodity Investor Q&A
With Matt Badiali
Q: I see that the natural gas price is really low right now, should I buy? – B.A.
A: With natural gas prices so low… and the hurricane season coming up… I think natural gas makes an interesting speculation right now.
At the beginning of this month, I argued that an excess of natural gas supply will probably keep prices down for a long time. But a supply crunch this summer could easily shoot prices up 50%. Let me explain…
Demand for natural gas is seasonal… It peaks in the winter and bottoms in May or June. There is a…
29Apr2009 | Stansberry and Associates | 0 comments | ContinuedGold Investments Market Update
Gold and silver rallied over 1% and 2% yesterday as stock markets barely made gains in the US. Asian stock markets were mixed but the Nikkei fell 2.5% and most European markets are showing weakness again this morning and gold remains firm.
Demand for gold remains extremely robust with broad based demand from both retail and pension investors but also now from very large players such as high net worth individuals, hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds (Government of Singapore Investment Corp – GIC) and central banks diversifying into gold.
The world’s central banks were net buyers of an estimated 1.1 million oz in…
12Mar2009 | The Gold Blog | 0 comments | ContinuedJapanese Candlestick Patterns and Indicator Patterns Correctly Predicted the Downturn in Gold
Stock prices and Commodities prices move in waves. It takes but a glance of the eye upon any price chart to see that this is so. Furthermore, the waves are predictable, which in turn means that prices are predictable, too – not necessarily to the dollar or penny, but oftentimes close enough for formulating investing and trading plans.
This predictability derives from the use of Japanese Candlestick price display plus the use of some of the many standard Indicators which have been prevalent in recent decades. In combination, they very often correctly forecast the course of prices in future days.…
26Feb2009 | William Kurtz | 0 comments | ContinuedNot all Commodities Stocks are Treated Equal (Part 2)
The first part of this two-part series essentially looked into the different effects monetary occurrences and supply and demand fundamentals can have on commodity prices. Monetary authorities around the world are implementing rampart growth in the money supply and quantitative easing in the form of negative real interest rates; meanwhile, the global economy is in free fall. The factors have opposite effects on commodity prices. We came to the logical conclusion that we wanted to give our portfolio exposure to the commodities that have significant monetary uses, aren’t cyclical, or both. Two good examples are gold and the grains. I…
24Feb2009 | Oxbury Research | 0 comments | ContinuedChinese Commodity Thirst Grows, Secures Brazilian Oil Deal
China Development Bank, one of China’s largest state-owned enterprises, has agreed to lend $10 billion to Brazil’s Petrobras (PBR) in exchange for a long-term supply of oil – the latest illustration of how Beijing is using the global downturn to further its domestic agenda.
Money Morning first reported in January, that China was building stakes in some of the world’s largest natural-resource companies, which have been made vulnerable by depressed commodities prices, tumbling profits and falling stock prices. In the scant few weeks since that Money Morning report was published, Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. (ADR: ACH), or Chinalco, has invested $19.5…
23Feb2009 | Money Morning | 0 comments | ContinuedJames Passin: Rising Commodity Prices to Trigger Renaissance for Nuclear and Gold
Source: The Gold Report
Commenting on what he views as an inevitable hike in commodity prices—and an equally inevitable shift into inflation—James Passin considers a nuclear renaissance a sure bet too. James is the co-founder and portfolio manager of Firebird Global Master Fund, Ltd. and Firebird Global Master Fund II, Ltd. In that role, he has made considerable investments in uranium, an indispensable element in the nuclear equation. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, James discusses the changing landscape of nuclear technology and shares his love of gold and his thoughts about where its price is headed in the…
14Jan2009 | The Gold Report | 0 comments | ContinuedVanishing Jobs and Rising Bailout Costs
While The DJIA Hits Key Resistance
Last week we discussed the prospect of rising job losses and last week’s November payroll report confirmed the phenomenon. The consensus amongst economists was that there would be 350,000 jobs lost. They were wrong, though: The actual number was a lot closer to 550,000 instead.
Even though the Dow continued to rally into this depressing news, a daily chart tells us that a veritable moment of truth has arrived:
The DJIA has tried and failed to clear its 50 day moving average. The 9000 level has proved to be serious resistance previously, and now that ominous blue…
12Dec2008 | Oxbury Research | 0 comments | ContinuedConfusion Reigns Supreme
Source: Roger Wiegand, WeBeatTheStreet.
“Gold isn’t just another commodity. Gold is money. Some day an international monetary crisis may rudely awaken us to this reality.” –Mark Skousen, Gold Newsletter, May, 1997, from James U. Blanchard’s Golden Insights.
With year-end portfolio balancing and fund managers striving for bonuses, this transition time among major markets is blanketed with crisis, making trading and investing difficult to say the least. We think we now have enough technical and fundamental data to forecast most of our markets deep into 2009. The next few months are fraught with danger and blessed with superb opportunities.
Proven laws of fundamentals,…
8Dec2008 | The Gold Report | 0 comments | ContinuedUnprecedented Volatility Will Precede Highly Profitable Rebound
In the 20 years I’ve been creating stock-market forecasts, I’ve never seen such a contradictory set of forces at work in the markets all at one time. I could just as easily make the case that we’re finally nearing a bottom, as I could that we’re in for protracted downturn punctuated by sharp, quick drops.
The only question in my mind is what shape an eventual recovery will take, for I see three possibilities:
- A "U," with a slow, methodical reversal that gradually transitions into a market rebound.
- A "V," with a quick, sharp reversal that marks the start of a powerful…
Gold in backwardation
Unlike other commodities, gold very rarely goes into backwardation: This only occurs when 1) The market fears a collapse in the currency., and/or 2) The market is worried about counterparties making good on their promise to deliver gold (which was briefly the case in 1999, when the Washington Agreement was announced and shorts were squeezed).
This morning, gold officially went into backwardation for the first time since the announcement of the Washington Agreement in 1999, which sent gold shorts scrambling to find physical metal after the world’s major central banks agreed to limit sales of gold going forward and ending…
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