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Vanishing Jobs and Rising Bailout Costs
While The DJIA Hits Key Resistance
Last week we discussed the prospect of rising job losses and last week’s November payroll report confirmed the phenomenon. The consensus amongst economists was that there would be 350,000 jobs lost. They were wrong, though: The actual number was a lot closer to 550,000 instead.
Even though the Dow continued to rally into this depressing news, a daily chart tells us that a veritable moment of truth has arrived:
The DJIA has tried and failed to clear its 50 day moving average. The 9000 level has proved to be serious resistance previously, and now that ominous blue…
12Dec2008 | Oxbury Research | 0 comments | ContinuedSentiment suggests a looming stock market rally
But is there enough fear to form a bottom?
Investor sentiment is an important tool in market-timing, often indicating an approaching reversal in the market’s direction. It is also known as a ‘contrary indicator.’ That is, investors are usually bullish and full of confidence by the time a bull market or major rally has gone on long enough to reach a top. In the opposite direction, investors are usually at an extreme of bearishness and fear by the time a serious correction has reached a bottom.
Sentiment is the clearest indication of why most investors fail to keep the gains they make…
12Nov2008 | Street Smart Report | Comments Off | ContinuedThe Worst Investment Advice You Can Get
Suppose you went out to your garage late one night and saw a huge snake coiled up in the corner.
If you grabbed a shovel and gave it a few good whacks, you might feel pleased with yourself.
But if you turned on the light and found that you’d just cut your garden hose in half, you might feel a little sheepish.
Unfortunately, too many frightened investors are taking a shovel to their stock portfolios right now. Worse still, their investment advisors are goading them on.
I can’t tell you how many times in the past two weeks I’ve heard talking heads in the…
1Oct2008 | Investment U | Comments Off | ContinuedBear Markets: Your Gift From The Financial Gods?
Although we saw a furious short-term rally late last week, we have entered into official bear markets territory as of early this month. (Bear markets are defined as a drop of 20% or more from a previous high.)
This is a good thing. Legendary investors understand this. Ordinary investors don’t.
If you haven’t spent much time buying stocks getting excited about a bear market doesn’t just sound counter-intuitive, it sounds nuts. After all, how can you feel appreciative watching the value of your life-savings grind lower?
But try thinking like a chess player, a few moves ahead.
Every stock investor knows that you’re supposed to…
24Jul2008 | Investment U | Comments Off | ContinuedIn the Valley of Gold
What you make of the gold market right now depends on what you make of the kind of data UBS’s precious metals team follows.
Big institutional players in the New York futures market slashed their bullish betting on gold in the week of June 10. Data from the CFTC — the U.S. regulator — shows a net reduction of 11 percent in the long gold positions held by what it calls “large speculators.â€
And this “reduction in the gross longs maybe a further sign that gold is losing its attraction,†reckon analysts at the Swiss banking and wealth management giant.
But less pressure…
21Jun2008 | Whiskey and Gunpowder | Comments Off | Continued
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