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Unemployment, Not the Stock Market, Distinguishes a Recession From a Depression
What are the most important and enduring characteristics of the Great Depression? And what should we monitor to determine how severe today’s situation really is?
The stock market will give important clues. But the economy, especially unemployment, defines depressions.
That should be obvious. However, after the stock market rallied off its March 2009 low, the media and many pundits seem to be fixated on the financial markets to determine the severity of the crisis and to call its end.
To see if the bulls’ hopeful thinking holds water, let’s go back to 1929 and have a look at the stock market’s behavior…
10Jul2009 | Money and Markets | 0 comments | ContinuedThe Great Rally Before the Great Inflation
Yesterday’s DailyWealth might have been the most dire essay we’ve ever published.
We explained "The Coming Great Inflation," and we shared a few ways to position yourself for when it arrives.
I know this may sound contradictory… but I think stocks could rise dramatically over the next 18 months or so. I believe stocks could have one of the greatest bear-market rallies in history.
I know our government is spending more money than at any time in history… by far. The government is completely tied up with promises it can’t possibly pay for – promises like universal health care and Social Security.
The looming…
24Apr2009 | Stansberry and Associates | 0 comments | Continued3 Stages of Bear Market Rally
In just six weeks the S&P 500 has climbed about 30% and the broader, small-cap focused Russell 2000 has soared 40%. It’s the steepest rally in more than 70 years. The bulls are off and running.
Despite it all, very few people believe this rally can last. And it’s because there are still so very few people getting in on this rally, odds are it won’t end very soon.
By this point, most commentators have declared this a bear market rally. The New York Times, Forbes, Bloomberg, and most every major media outlet have gotten on board.
Some of the world’s leading investors agree. In…
21Apr2009 | Q1 Publishing | 0 comments | ContinuedWhen will stock market selling end?
All year long, as I guided my subscribers into the intermediate-term rallies and then the subsequent corrections, I said in these columns that the rallies would be worth going after but should be sold into as they failed, and downside positions should be taken, as our work called for "the market’s low for the year to take place in the Oct/Nov time frame."
But this far down? No, I did not expect this. Our downside target for the Oct/Nov low was the lower limit of the Dow’s bear market trading band, which was around 10,250. That would have been a serious…
15Oct2008 | Street Smart Report | Comments Off | Continued
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