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Where the Wild Things Are
Where the Wild Things Are
It Is Not Just Japan
The Euro-Yen Cross and the Dollar Carry Trade
New York, London, and Switzerland
From ghoulies and ghosties
And long-leggedy beasties
And things that go bump in the night,
Good Lord, deliver us!–Old Scottish Prayer
Where the Wild Things Are is a beloved children’s book and now a beautiful movie. But in the investment world there are really scary wild things lurking about in the hidden recesses of the economic landscape. Today we look at one of the unintended consequences of the Federal Reserve’s low interest rate policy.
For quite some time, I have been…
23Nov2009 | Thoughts From the Frontline | 0 comments | ContinuedHow Far Can Stocks Fall?
Ian Gordon called me just prior to a recent radio show to tell me that based on the work of W.D. Gann, he thinks odds favor Friday, Nov. 13, 2009, being the peak of this “B” wave higher. I sent an e-mail to Dr. Robert McHugh to see if he was familiar with Gann. He returned the following answer to me via email:
Hi Jay: No, I do not follow Gann. But Friday is pretty close to our Nov 9th phi mate turn and Bradley Model turn date, so maybe he’ll be right. Best, Bob
Dr. McHugh wrote the following:
“Stocks are up…
Is Friday Nov. 13 Destined to Be “The Turn” Date?
Minutes before I was ready to go on the air with my radio program I received a call from my long-time good friend Ian Gordon, who predicted the market would peak on Friday, Nov. 13. In addition to his usual work, Ian was basing his views on the core of work carried out by W.D. Gann, a brilliant market forecaster in the past who is known for his analysis of cycles and trading patterns in equities as well as commodities. It remains to be seen if this Friday, Nov. 13, was the top of the B wave up. If it…
Pushing on a String!
There is a desire to see this as a bullish market? Who doesn’t like a bull? If you listen to ongoing discussion on CNBC, Bloomberg, and other media, you get a sense of optimism; or perhaps it’s just a bunch of cheerleaders touting their own book.
I do agree that there is not the euphoria that one gets at market tops. At the same time, review the earnings and PE ratios as discussed by Ian Gordon below and you can see why Wall Street may not be terribly optimistic. Perhaps they don’t really buy the optimism of cheerleading optimists. Also, I’m…
Eclectica November Fund Commentary
Today’s Outside the Box comes to us from England. My European partner Niels Jensen from time to time sends me some of the best letters he reads from the hedge fund world. He is an excellent filter for me, and this week’s Outside the Box offering is no exception. Below is the November commentary from Eclectica fund manager Hugh Hendry. He challenges the current preoccupation with the falling dollar and China, and posits what would happen if that thinking is wrong? It offers some very thought-provoking ideas. You can contact them for more information at info@eclectica-am.com or visit their website: http://www.eclectica-am.com
Your…
18Nov2009 | Outside the Box | 0 comments | ContinuedRight on Schedule: Revisiting 3 Stages of Bear Market Rally
When someone says, “it’s different this time,” what happens next is rarely surprising.
We know it’s never different this time.
The thing is though it takes a bit of time to remember that.
For instance, the implicit “it’s never different this time” promise is the biggest problem facing the Democrats push for healthcare reform.
It’s a new entitlement program. And history has proven time and again, in its current form the odds of it reducing costs, increasing efficiency, and making the healthcare system better for consumers are pretty slim. It’s really only a matter of time until the well-documented consequences of the…
18Nov2009 | Q1 Publishing | 0 comments | ContinuedIf This Is Recovery…
If This is Recovery, Where Are the Taxes?
Last Business Standing
Stimulus, What Stimulus?
The Reality of Unemployment
Let the Good Times Roll
The Quick Double-Dip Scenario
Phoenix, New York, and Thoughts on the Internet
No one goes into Wal-Mart and asks to pay extra sales tax. Thus sales taxes are reasonable barometers for retail sales. This week we look at how taxes are doing in a period of economic recovery. Then we turn our eyes to a very interesting (and sobering) analysis of possible future unemployment rates. This is an anecdote to the happy-face analysis of employment numbers you…
16Nov2009 | Thoughts From the Frontline | 1 comment | ContinuedGoldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) Really Does Rule The World
In Wednesday’s edition of the Invest With An Edge newsletter (to which you really should subscribe if you haven’t already), our Quote of the Week came from Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein. He said “We’re very important… I’m doing God’s work.”
Yes, Blankfein really said this. Follow the link above if you don’t believe it. Even more amazing, he said it to a reporter, during a scheduled interview, knowing whatever he said was on the record.
Now I will admit that in context, Blankfein had a point. The financial system provides funding for new businesses and jobs for people. Most would agree these are…
16Nov2009 | Invest With An Edge | 0 comments | ContinuedThe Market is Going Lower, Buy Stocks…Now?
It sounds crazy, I know.
All signs point to the market heading lower. The major indices are fundamentally overvalued, the real
economy has barely improved, and expectations are approaching lofty highs.
It’s a recipe for a sharp and painful correction. And that’s why I’ve recently turned bearish on the markets in general.
Still though, the market rises. There are many factors for the rise, but the question is what to do now?
That’s where it may get a little confusing. I’m bearish, but I’m still recommending buying stocks.
On the surface, it doesn’t make any sense at all. But the facts reign…
12Nov2009 | Q1 Publishing | 1 comment | ContinuedThe Glide Path Option
The Present Contains All Possible Futures
The Ugly Unemployment Numbers
Argentinian Disease
The Austrian Solution
The Eastern European Solution
Japanese Disease
The Glide Path Option
Philadelphia, Orlando, and Phoenix
The present contains all possible futures. But not all futures are good ones. Some can be quite cruel. The one we actually get is dictated by the choices we make. For the last few months I have been addressing the choices in front of us, economically speaking. Today I am going to summarize them, and maybe we can look for some signposts that will tell us which path we’re headed down. For…
9Nov2009 | Thoughts From the Frontline | 0 comments | Continued
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