Archive for The Penny Sleuth
The Energy President
Electing Our Next Energy System
In the world of energy and scarcity, the name of the next president will matter to us quite a bit. “People are policy,†as Ronald Reagan used to say.
But then again, a lot of energy and scarcity facts defy party labels. The energy resources are out there.
They are what they are and where they are. We can exploit the resources or not. But it’s not like in Star Trek. There’s no “dilithium†power source out there to keep the economy running.
So for the next president and his administration, it’s a question of doing something. The U.S.…
10Sep2008 | The Penny Sleuth | Comments Off | ContinuedInvesting in Options Speculation
Sensible Speculation and Super Leverage
I was very fortunate to join my dad, Steve Sarnoff, as co-editor of Options Hotline in 1995, and I worked closely with him for four years. If you aren’t familiar with my dad, he’s an author of more than 60 books, editor of several newsletters, and what the New York Times called the “Dean of Commodities Analysts.â€
I laugh when I think back about those times because my dad — he really loved Options Hotline, and he would say to me, “Sonny, they’re the only one’s that have super leverage and it’s the only sensible way to…
9Sep2008 | The Penny Sleuth | Comments Off | ContinuedGlobal Oil Problems
Western Oil Woes
Western nations — the U.S., in particular — are now experiencing the bow wave of a profound change in the current and future availability of oil. According to recently published data, oil output from all major Western oil companies is on an ominous decline trend. Exxon Mobil, for example, announced that its average oil output has fallen by 614,000 barrels per day in 2008.
Western oil majors like Exxon are finding it harder than ever to identify new prospects and successfully complete new oil projects. This comes despite the fact that the oil industry is flush with profits from…
8Sep2008 | The Penny Sleuth | Comments Off | ContinuedPrepping for Penny Stock Investing
Researching Penny Stocks
The phrase “penny stock†tends to scare many investors away. But, those are the companies you read about that returned triple and even quadruple-digit returns.
Penny stocks are usually small and newly created companies. While still trying to get established, penny stocks are analogically infants and toddlers compared to large-cap adult companies. With great parental guidance from a superb managing team, penny stocks can hold a promising future.
But, as with all children, they occasionally run amok. Some fall into the financial hole and can’t get out. Others have great balance sheets but no growth strategy. So, how do you…
5Sep2008 | The Penny Sleuth | Comments Off | ContinuedThe Two Money Makers in the Market
The Story That Got You Interested in Stocks
On Nov. 19, 1984, you could have picked up shares of the emerging biotechnology firm Amgen, Inc. (AMGN: NASDAQ) for $3.63.
Those shares rose steadily for the next 20 years and were worth more than $85 as recent as 2005. Taking into account Amgen’s five splits over the past 23 years, you can knock that original 1984 price down to about nine cents a share.
It’s almost impossible to believe that a company that would cost you pennies could turn into a $100 billion pharmaceutical giant specializing in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, anemia and…
4Sep2008 | The Penny Sleuth | Comments Off | ContinuedLooking for the Innovators
The “I†Cycle
While in Vienna last month, I grabbed hold of the international edition of The Wall Street Journal. Over a classic Viennese breakfast of coffee, a boiled egg and pastry, I stumbled across an interview with Ted Forstmann, titled, “The Credit Crisis Is Going to Get Worse.â€
I hadn’t seen Forstmann’s name in years. He once lorded over one of the world’s most famous private equity firms, Forstmann Little. For a time, it was, as the Journal notes, “the most successful private equity firm in the world, renowned for both its outsized returns and its caution.†When things got a…
3Sep2008 | The Penny Sleuth | Comments Off | ContinuedThe Best Way to Pick Options
The Fundamentals of Options
What’s the best way to pick option plays?
While there are probably hundreds, if not thousands, of different answers to that question, now is not the time to get overly sophisticated. I like to keep it simple, and I think you will, too.
Longer-Term Option Plays Are Key
In my options service, Easy Money Options, we focus on longer-term option plays. That way, our positions have plenty of time to work out while allowing powerful, longer-term forces to come into play.
What forces am I talking about? That’s easy: fundamentals.
Fundamentals are the basic forces that drive companies, like product sales, position…
2Sep2008 | The Penny Sleuth | Comments Off | ContinuedInvesting in Africa
African Profits
Zanzibar, Dar es Salaam, Mombasa, Mogadishu, Mumbai, Mangalore…all trading cities along the fabled rim of the Indian Ocean. These eastern African cities thrived between the 12th and 18th centuries, with ships sailing in and out on monsoon winds. They will thrive again on the tailwind of a long-term bull market in commodities.
“From here in Africa, we sailed with ivory, mangrove, coconuts, tortoise and cowrie shells,†says an old sailor named Bwama Shafi in a dusty, old issue of National Geographic. “From Arabia, we brought dates, whale oil, carpets and incense. From India, pots, glassware and cloth. Trade was our…
29Aug2008 | The Penny Sleuth | Comments Off | ContinuedThe Next Victim in the Banking Fiasco
A New Short Idea in the Banking Sector
“You know, you saw subprime go first, and then, on a slight lag, you saw home equity, and now in the lag, you’re seeing prime go. And it’s exactly the same loss factors. But remember, the components of where we are in the states…[are] very different. And we started doing more jumbos in ‘07, so a lot of that is — part of that is ‘07 vintage, which I think I told you at the time we were going to do and grow our balance sheet and gain share. And we were wrong.…
28Aug2008 | The Penny Sleuth | Comments Off | ContinuedInvesting in Microturbines
On-Site and Self-Contained Electricity
Imagine a municipal bus that’s powered by an electric motor, crawling along the crowded streets of Beijing. What does this bus have in common with the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California?
Or imagine offshore oil production platforms in the Gulf of Alaska or the North Sea. What do these offshore platforms have in common with a luxury ski resort near St. Petersburg, Russia?
When you first think of it, there’s not much commonality between a city bus in China and a large presidential library in the U.S. And how do you begin to compare an austere…
27Aug2008 | The Penny Sleuth | Comments Off | Continued
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