The Next Great Bubble Boom Revisited (Part I)

“A devastating crash occurs between 2010 and 2012, which ushers in a thirteen-year bear market into 2022” -Harry Dent Jr.

This quote is taken directly from the back of Harry S. Dent Jr.’s bestselling book, The Next Great Bubble Boom. Mr. Dent was a pioneer in the study of demographics and their relation to the stock market. Before we dive into certain specifics and reasoning behind what is shaping up to be an ominous prediction, it is important to sift out why this renowned author came to such conclusions in the first place and if anything has changed since the book…

Not all Commodities Stocks are Treated Equal (Part 2)

The first part of this two-part series essentially looked into the different effects monetary occurrences and supply and demand fundamentals can have on commodity prices.  Monetary authorities around the world are implementing rampart growth in the money supply and quantitative easing in the form of negative real interest rates; meanwhile, the global economy is in free fall.  The factors have opposite effects on commodity prices.  We came to the logical conclusion that we wanted to give our portfolio exposure to the commodities that have significant monetary uses, aren’t cyclical, or both.  Two good examples are gold and the grains.  I…

The Investment Bedrock of Monetary Systems

“How To Preserve Wealth During Crises… And Why Central Banks Are Bad For Your Financial Health”

Last week we talked about the grave dangers of a Depression and recent media discussion as to whether or not we’re about to enter one (or already are). That of course raises the question: if worst comes to worst, how did investors survive the last one?

We don’t have the time or space to go into every possible detail of a comprehensive comparison and contrast between the 1930’s and today. Instead, let’s focus our efforts and take a look at historical charts like this one:

If you were…

The Road To Recovery Has Potholes

Let’s take care of some old business first.

When I suggested a closer look at long positions in GE and BAC last week, I did not expect each of them to spike violently in two days. That was part luck.

The other half of what I explained ended with the following sentence, which is something I wish was not a repetitive reality:

“All in all, if we don’t see positive, convincing move in the next few trading days, we’re looking at the very real possibility of the bottom falling out.”

Well, the bottom may not have fallen out, but it’s certainly playing with…

The End of the Second Gilded Age

Mark Twain called the late nineteenth century the “Gilded Age”. In fact, Mark Twain wrote a novel called “The Gilded Age” ridiculing Washington D.C. and many of the leading figures of the day. Mark Twain thought that the period was glittering on the surface but corrupt underneath. Many people believe that there are many similarities between that era and our current era. It seems to me to be another instance of history “rhyming”.

The Gilded Age was an era of intense political partisanship. Sound familiar? This era also saw the rise of the Populist party. Burdened by heavy debts, many farmers…