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Eclectica November Fund Commentary
Today’s Outside the Box comes to us from England. My European partner Niels Jensen from time to time sends me some of the best letters he reads from the hedge fund world. He is an excellent filter for me, and this week’s Outside the Box offering is no exception. Below is the November commentary from Eclectica fund manager Hugh Hendry. He challenges the current preoccupation with the falling dollar and China, and posits what would happen if that thinking is wrong? It offers some very thought-provoking ideas. You can contact them for more information at info@eclectica-am.com or visit their website: http://www.eclectica-am.com
Your…
18Nov2009 | Outside the Box | 0 comments | ContinuedJust Desserts and Markets Being Silly Again
My long time readers are familiar with Jeremy Grantham of GMO as I quote him a lot. He is one of the more brilliant and talented value managers (and I should mention very successful on behalf of his clients). He writes a quarterly letter which I regard as a must read. I have excerpted parts of his recent letter, where the chief investment strategist really takes the current financial system follies to task. Typical of his great writing and thinking is the quote from this week’s Outside the Box selection:
6Nov2009 | Outside the Box | 1 comment | Continued"I can imagine the company representatives on the Titanic II design committee…
A Crisis in the Kremlin
Earlier this week, I sent out a piece that talked about the dangers of ignoring the big picture – even for the “bottom up” investor. Every once in a while, we all have to step away from the Dow Jones Industrial Average, housing prices and other indicators to look at what’s going to influence these factors in the long term.
Today I give you a video about Russia and how a plan to fix the economy might throw off the political balance of power. I regard Moscow’s situation as a valuable lesson for our country – also in the throes of…
2Nov2009 | Outside the Box | 0 comments | ContinuedLiquor Before Beer – In the Clear
I am in Argentina today, but still have found time to read a rather provocative speech by David Einhorn, who is President of Greenlight Capital, a "long-short value-oriented hedge fund", which he began in 1996. Einhorn has long been a critic of the current investment banking business, and today he discusses the problems with not only the proposed new government regulations (or lack thereof), but also the problems with the US debt and our currency valuations. It is a most thought-provoking and fun speech.
It is especially poignant as I sit in a country that has seen the ravages of hyper-inflation,…
28Oct2009 | Outside the Box | 0 comments | ContinuedZen Lessons in Market Analysis
“Everything, including the market, is ultimately empty of a separate self. One market can only be understood and analyzed in the context of other markets and conditions. Supply and demand, in particular, should not be considered in isolation.”
Long time Outside the Box readers are quite familiar with Dr. John Hussman, as he is a frequent choice for this column. But this week I think he has written one of his bests essays ever. He cleverly weaves in quotes from a Zen master who is his friend and gives us a very fresh look at market analysis. This is a thought…
20Oct2009 | Outside the Box | 0 comments | ContinuedThe China Files (Special Project): Real Estate
Today I offer you an insightful look at China’s real estate market – a "burgeoning bubble" that deserves a close eye as the possibility for breaking increases. Remember the chaos in Japan after their own housing dreamscape got violently yanked back to earth? As investors, we have to recognize opportunities – and know what to avoid. With a global economic crisis – and now surging housing prices in China – investors in any global market need to keep watch on political and economic developments around the world.
Today’s analysis comes courtesy my friends at STRATFOR, a global intelligence company. They provide…
17Oct2009 | Outside the Box | 0 comments | ContinuedQuarterly Review and Outlook – Third Quarter 2009
I look forward at the beginning of every quarter to receiving the Quarterly Outlook from Hoisington Investment Management. They have been prominent proponents of the view that deflation is the problem, stemming from a variety of factors, and write about their views in a very clear and concise manner. This quarter’s letter is no exception, where they once again delve into the history books to bring up fresh and relevant lessons for today. This is a must read piece.
Hoisington Investment Management Company (www.hoisingtonmgt.com) is a registered investment advisor specializing in fixed income portfolios for large institutional clients. Located in…
15Oct2009 | Outside the Box | 0 comments | ContinuedA Country for Old Men and a Bit of Samba
We all know that a large wave of Baby Boomers in the US are approaching retirement. But what about the rest of the world? And what happens when those retirees need to spend out of savings? There is more than just a credit crisis and a government deficit crisis in our future. A rising level of retirrees to workers is happening even as I write. And the US is not, for once, the center of the problem. As this week’s writer of your Outside the Box Niels Jensen explains, we cannot all export our way out of the problem. There…
8Oct2009 | Outside the Box | 0 comments | Continued
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