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2010 Should Be A Doozy!
2009 is now being called the turnaround of the "great recession." For the sake of the world, I suppose this is better than the "Second Great Depression." However, one must ask, what has really been changed?
Easy money was, and remains to be the cause of every boom and bust. Now, let’s examine the current scenario and see how it stacks up. It could be said that the $8000 first time home buyers tax credit is easy money. Then isn’t the recent $4500 cash for clunkers deal also easy money? What about the greatest coordinated global stimulus package the world…
3Sep2009 | Guest Contributor | 0 comments | ContinuedChart Analysis + The Manipulation Factor
As the dollar headed south over the last 6 months, many wondered if it was about to collapse. Hedge funds, mutual fund managers, individual traders and investors had and are still short the dollar. The rally since March has coincided directly with the fall in the dollar. The yearly highs on the dollar were made in the first week of March and sure enough, the low of 666 on the S&P was also hit in the first week of March. Clearly, the rally has been a re inflation rally but there are other factors at work. The Federal Reserve has…
19Aug2009 | Guest Contributor | 0 comments | ContinuedMacroeconomics – A Dark Crossroads
As an engineering student in the mid-1980s, I was required to take at least one social science type elective course. My Professors argued that I should take an economics course as every engineering student needed to have a basic understanding of the social science called economics. I followed this sage advice and I must admit I thoroughly enjoyed the macroeconomcs portion of the course by far the most. Later in the 1990’s when I took my MBA degree I again found myself enjoying macroeconomics as the course material steered me deeper into the thinking of people like Keynes and Milton…
5Aug2009 | Guest Contributor | 1 comment | ContinuedMexican Politics – Into the Dark Abyss
Mention Mexico and your thoughts probably turn to sunny beach resorts and then maybe to the ongoing illegal immigration saga that has had politicians in Washington talking of building a massive wall along the border. Thanks to the media, these tend to be the prevailing images that come to our minds when we hear mention of Mexico.
But, there is another side to Mexico – one that we need be aware of and one that could result in investors taking serious losses on their investments in publicly listed firms engaged in mineral exploration and mining in Mexico.
To properly understand…
5Aug2009 | Guest Contributor | 3 comments | ContinuedUsing The Large Time Frames To Capture Massive Profits
As I write this article on time frames, I wish to speak a little bit about my experience as a trader. Throughout the years, I have made my fair share of mistakes. Those of you that trade/invest in the markets know it is just part of the game. It is a trial and error type career, like kids, we must touch the hot stove/oven, even when our parents told us not to. Once touched, we pray we learn our lesson and never do it again. I was no different as I began to learn how to trade. I would try something, find…
14Jul2009 | Guest Contributor | 0 comments | Continued5 Reasons Not to Buy the Canada ETF
iShares MSCI Canada Index (EWC) consists of blue-chip Canadian companies. Industrial Materials and Energy sectors account for almost half of its weightings, which include Barrick Gold (ABX), Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), EnCana (ECA),Goldcorp (GG), Potash (POT) and Suncor Energy (SU). Financial Services accounts for 30%. The rest are other brand names such as Research in Motion (RIMM).
Following are 5 reasons why EWC might cool down from its strong rally over the last few months:
1. Over-Priced Compared to Dow With yestesrday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stands on 8,675 while S&P/TSX Composite index is 10,290. In other words, TSX…
5Jun2009 | Guest Contributor | 0 comments | ContinuedCould the U.S. Lose Its Triple-A Rating?
An investor buys an idea and waits for that idea to materialize. It might take minutes, hours, days, sometimes even years for that idea to materialize. The longer the time frame, the more likely the idea will materialize profitably, according to an recent article in May/June 2009 issue CFA Institute Magazine.
After it cut its outlook on the United Kingdom’s triple-A credit rating to ‘negative’ from ’stable’, last week Standard & Poor’s raised worries that the United States could lose its "AAA" rating. On May 27, Moody’s Investors Service, another ratings agency, said the U.S. government’s AAA rating is stable…
3Jun2009 | Guest Contributor | 0 comments | Continued7 Reasons Not to Buy Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway
I am a big fan of Warren Buffett. However, I believe it is more advantageous to follow Buffett’s stock picks than own Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) for the following reasons:
1. Portfolio Concentrated in US Dollars
Berkshire has a portfolio of 41 stocks. The total portfolio value is $48,025,404,085 as of May 15, 2009, according to CNBC. The top 6 holdings: The Coca-Cola Company (KO), Wells Fargo & Company (WFC), Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. (BNI), Procter & Gamble Co. (PG), American Express Company (AXP) and Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT) account for almost 70% of it.
Paul Krugman, the recipient of the 2008 Nobel Price in…
26May2009 | Guest Contributor | 4 comments | ContinuedAnother Bubble in the Making?
The market has staged a very impressive rally since the March 6th low. At that time the S&P bottomed at 666 and is now around 900. This massive rally has occurred in just two and a half months. Some talking heads in the media are now saying that this is the start of the next bull market. Many call a move of 20% or more a bull market and perhaps by that definition they are correct. However, the decline seen last year should then be called a ‘mega bear’ as the S&P went from 1576 to 666 in just 18…
21May2009 | Guest Contributor | 1 comment | Continued‘Better’ Doesn’t Mean ‘Good’
On Monday, the Bank of Canada released the results of two quarterly surveys it uses to gauge the mood of business and lending decision-makers, the Business Outlook Survey (BOS) and the Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOS).
Both measures of sentiment showed improvement from the respective January surveys, but we’re talking about rebounds off historic lows. As is the case with much of the economic data we’re seeing these days, the story is all about the second derivative–the nature of the change–rather than the absolute numbers.
Regarding the Business Outlook Survey, senior managers in Canada are still pessimistic, but the view isn’t as grim as…
30Apr2009 | Guest Contributor | 0 comments | Continued
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