ECB Press Conference Helps Euro Recover
After falling throughout the morning session, the euro was able to stage a partial recovery during afternoon trading yesterday, following comments from ECB President Draghi who reiterated his earlier predictions of euro-zone economic growth during the second half of the year. Turning to today, investors will be carefully monitoring the US Non-Farm Payrolls, set to be released at 12:30 GMT. Analysts are forecasting today's news to come in at 173K. While that number would represent a significant increase over last month's Non-Farm figure, it is not considered high enough to signal strong growth in the US labor sector. Still, should today's news come in at or above expectations, the greenback could see gains to close out the week.
USD – All Eyes on Today's US Non-Farm Payrolls Report
The dollar saw steady gains vs. its main currency rivals during morning and mid-day trading yesterday, as the combination of a disappointing Spanish debt auction and a better than expected US Unemployment Claims figure caused investors to shift their funds back to the greenback. The EUR/USD fell around 70 pips, reaching as low as 1.3095 during the afternoon session, before staging a correction during the second half of the day. The pair eventually recovered, reaching as high as 1.3178. Against the yen, the dollar gained over 40 pips over the course of the day, before falling due to a worse than expected US Non-Manufacturing PMI. The USD/JPY eventually stabilized around the 80.30 level.
As we close out the week, traders will want to pay careful attention to the US Non-Farm Payrolls figure, scheduled to be released at 12:30 GMT. The employment statistic is widely considered to be the most significant indicator on the forex calendar, and consistently leads to market volatility. Analysts are forecasting the indicator to come in at 173K, which if true would represent a substantial increase over last month's disappointing 120K end result. Should today's figure exceed expectations, the dollar could see gains against most of its main currency rivals, including the euro and yen. That being said, should the news come in below the forecasted level, the greenback could see heavy losses.
EUR – Euro Reverses Bearish Trend Following ECB Statement
Following a somewhat disappointing Spanish debt auction yesterday, the euro dropped against its main currency rivals, including the British pound and Japanese yen. That being said, the common currency was able to stage a recovery later in the day, following a speech from the ECB President, where he restated his expectations of economic growth during the second half of the year. The EUR/GBP rose by 40 pips following the speech, reaching as high as 0.8142 before staging a downward correction. Against the yen, the common currency shot up close to 70 pips, peaking at 106.11 before moving downward. The pair eventually stabilized at 105.75.
Turning to today, the euro is likely to see heavy volatility when the US Non-Farm Payrolls figure is released. The euro saw significant gains against the dollar following last month's worse than expected Non-Farm figure. Should today's news come in below the predicted value of 173K, the EUR may be able to repeat last month's gains. Turning to next week, traders will want to note the results of elections in France and Greece scheduled to take place this weekend. Any dramatic changes in either of the governments may result in euro losses to start off the week.
Gold – Gold Slips Following US Unemployment Claims
A lower than expected US Unemployment Claims figure led to a drop in the price of gold during trading yesterday. 365K people filed for unemployment insurance in the US last week, well below the forecasted level of 381K. The news led to some dollar gains during afternoon trading, which subsequently caused gold to fall. A bullish USD typically causes gold to fall, as it makes the precious metal more expensive for international buyers. By the afternoon session, gold was trading below $1635 an ounce, down from $1647 earlier in the day.
Turning to today, traders can anticipate volatility in the price of gold following the release of a highly significant US employment figure. Should today's news result in additional USD gains, the price of gold could drop further. At the same time, if today's news disappoints and the dollar turns bearish, gold may be able to recoup some of yesterday's losses.
Crude Oil – US Oil Inventories Causes Oil to Fall
The price of crude oil fell by over $2 a barrel during European trading yesterday, following an increase in US inventories which signaled decreased demand in the world's largest oil consuming country. By the afternoon session, oil was trading below $103 a barrel, its lowest level in over a week.
Turning to today, the direction oil takes will largely be determined by the US Non-Farm Payrolls figure and what impact the news will have on risk taking in the marketplace. Should the news lead to gains for the US dollar, the price of oil could continue to drop ahead of markets closing for the week. At the same time, if riskier currencies move up following the news, oil could recoup some of yesterday's losses.
The MACD/OsMA on the daily chart appears close to forming a bearish cross, indicating that this pair could see upward movement in the near future. Additionally, the Williams Percent Range on the same chart is moving down at the moment and could soon cross into oversold territory. Traders will want to keep an eye on these indicators, as they may signal an impending upward correction.
The Williams Percent Range on the weekly chart is in overbought territory, meaning that this pair could see downward movement in the near future. Furthermore, the MACD/OsMA on the daily chart appears to be forming a bearish cross. Going short may be the preferred strategy for this pair.
A bullish cross on the daily chart's Slow Stochastic points to a possible upward correction. That being said, most other long-term technical indicators show this pair trading in neutral territory, meaning that no defined trend can be predicted. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach, as a clearer trend may present itself shortly.
Most long-term technical indicators show this pair range-trading, meaning that no defined trend can be predicted at this time. That being said, the weekly chart's MACD/OsMA appears close to forming a bearish cross. Traders will want to keep an eye on this indicator. Should the cross form, it may be a sign of impending bearish movement.
The Wild Card
The Williams Percent Range on the daily chart has dropped into oversold territory, indicating that this pair could see an upward correction in the near future. Furthermore, the Slow Stochastic on the same chart appears close to forming a bullish cross. Should the cross form, it may be a good time for forex traders to open long positions.
Article Source: ECB Press Conference Helps Euro Recover