NY Post
John Crudele

(snip)

Phillip F. Blumberg, chairman of Blumberg Capital Partners, thinks banks are really worried about the commercial real estate loans they issued during the orgasmic 2000s. That’s the reason, says Blumberg, banks are remaining conservative in their lending.

Credit cards may be bad but commercial real estate is worse.

"It’s absolutely frightening," says Blumberg, who adds that he sold most of his real estate holders before the bust.

And the most dangerous time for banks will be 2010 to 2013 when $1 trillion in commercial real estate loans will mature and — like homeowners before them — owners of commercial properties will need to refinance.

Blumberg estimates that $236 billion in commercial real estate loans that were turned into securities will need to be refinanced in this period and that $67 billion of that amount "will be lost."

"We are on the brink of one of the worst commercial real estate financing markets ever," he said.

My comment: This makes sense as retailers go out of business and abandon space and as business downsizes it needs less office space. These are more malinvestments that the FED fostered with its easy money policy of low interest rates. yet people still believe that the people who did not see the problem or even admit their actions caused the problem are the ones that are going to fix it. The idea is embarrassingly absurd yet people will believe anything when they are drowning.

John Polomny
The Real Deal