If You Don’t Watch This Chart, You’re Going to Lose Money





The chart is of the long-bond yield. The "long bond" is the nickname for the 30-year Treasury bond.

As I wrote in my last essay, long-bond prices are plummeting right now. They have just broken down to new five-month lows… and the selling pressure is so strong, not even the Fed’s printing press can hold prices up.

When the long bond falls in price, its interest rate rises… The long bond’s yield was as low as 2.5% in December. It has now risen past 4%. This could be a huge problem for income investors

TYX 30 year T-Bond Yield Index

The long bond competes with other income investments for investor capital. So a rise in the long bond’s interest rate can crush certain income investments. Let me explain…

If the long bond’s yield rises from 4% to 8%, the yield on all other income investments must also rise by 4%. A 12% junk bond would become a 16% junk bond. A 14% dividend payer would have to become an 18% dividend payer.

Here’s the problem: For yields to rise that much, prices must fall – a lot.

So right now, as long-bond rates rise, buying income investments is a treacherous proposition. Here’s the advice I gave to readers of my 12% Letter on how to safely earn income in a bond bear market…

First, keep compounding. When you reinvest your dividends, your dividends start paying dividends, too. Compounding is a powerful force that builds fortunes. A bear market in the long bond will NOT hurt the power of compounding.

Second, the "junkiest" bonds and high-yield stocks will suffer the most from a long-bond bear market. Avoid risky income investments that use debt and financial engineering to pay large dividends. Stick with only the best-quality, high-cash-flow businesses that relentlessly raise their dividends.

Finally, make sure you understand how to trade a covered call. Covered calls are the perfect strategy for collecting income in a bond bear market. Unlike bond coupons or stock dividends, the yield you earn from selling covered calls has nothing to do with market interest rates or credit quality. You can generate double-digit dividend yields without taking big interest-rate risks.

Take these precautions, and you should have no problem earning high income yields in a long-bond bear market.

Good investing,

Tom Dyson
Daily Wealth

More on this topic (What's this?)
Bonds: The Next Bubble to Burst?
The T-Bill
Read more on Bond Investing at Wikinvest

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There Is 1 Response So Far. »

  1. Please explain the impact the long bond can have on home mortgage rates.
    thank you
    Trader Xi

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