SubscribeDaily Futures Commentary April 17, 2009
Friday, April 17, 2009
The weak close in the June Euro last night put this market in a position to breech the 1.3114 swing bottom support and send this market to at least 1.2945 over the near term. The current weakness can be attributed to a combination of a weakening chart pattern and loss of confidence by investors with the European Central Bank policymakers.
The swing chart is indicating mounting downside pressure as the chart has formed two secondary lower tops at 1.3583 and 1.3390. With the addition of the lower bottom overnight, this pattern fits the classic definition of a down trend.
Fundamentally, investors are beginning to lose confidence in the European Central Bank policymaker’s ability to reach a conclusive decision on interest rates at its upcoming meeting on May 7. Recently several members have been uncharacteristically using the media to talk their positions on the future of Euro Zone interest rates. A schism seems to be developing between those who want to keep the benchmark rate above 1.0% and those who want to allow it to drift as low as possible.
Those who want to keep interest …
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