Business Insider:

(snip)

The saga of North American oil is well underway. The current financial crisis, triggered in part by the global oil crisis, is only serving to mask the decline of oil supply in this region. That the supply of oil would move in reverse to the advance in price over a 6 year period—a sustained period—is a brutal fact that can no longer be denied. Remember, much of this oil is extracted with the benefit of the latest technology and profit-maximizing, “rational” actors. While this is less true in Mexico, I maintain that PEMEX, the state run oil company, while not in the league of Saudi Aramco is no Venezuelan PDVSA. PEMEX avails itself of the latest technology, and Mexico is well explored. While it’s also true that offshore California, offshore Florida, and parts of Alaska are undeveloped, even a Marshall Plan to develop those resources would not result in oil coming on stream until several years from now.

Accordingly, I am calling for substantial new price highs in oil no later than the Presidential Election of November 2012. I expect oil to go above 200.00 dollars per barrel, and to consolidate thereafter between the old price high of 150.00 and 200.00. The seeds for this price spike have been sewn all decade, and are furiously at work right now.

(snip)

In Washington of course we find the most enduring, multi-decade lack of realism as it pertains to energy and energy supply. The current administration is no different. I find among the kaleidoscope of political parties in the US that the versions of energy misunderstanding are maintained in somewhat equal proportions across party lines. It’s just that the configuration of the misunderstandings change from party to party.

My comment: As I have said in the past I expect that oil prices are going to rise back to the old highs sooner then most think.

John Polomny
The Real Deal