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Pennsylvania Primary Results: What will make or break Hillary Clinton?

April 21st, 2008 • Related • Filed Under

Can Barack Obama Close the Deal with Democratic Voters?

I ran into an interesting article over at RealClearPolitics titled, “Why Pennsylvania Matters” written by John McIntyre. Hillary Clinton is playing a popular vote strategy, which is the only way she can hope to force the superdelegates to hand her the democratic nomination. If she were to win the popular vote, then she’s be able to essentially cancel out Obama’s national delegate count lead. If this scenario turns out to be true, then Clinton could argue that she has won most of the important swing states (including Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania) that Democrats must carry in a presidential election in order to win.

Ohio vs. Pennsylvania

One day before Ohio’s primary, Clinton was leading by just 4%. She then went on to a key 10% victory in that state. With just one day left to go until the Pennsylvania Primary kicks off, she’s up by an RCP average of 6%. In a CNN poll of polls dated April 21, Clinton is shown having a 7% lead with only 7% of Pennsylvania voters remaining undecided.

White catholic voters make up the largest share of the remaining “undecided” vote — a bloc that heavily favors Clinton. So far, we’ve seen undecideds fall heavily toward her during this primary season. Could the same happen again? Who knows… but it could very well be the case.

If Obama was expected to do well in states that he’d have more time to campaign in, why is it that he has yet to overtake Clinton in recent polling? He has outspent her by a margin exceeding 2:1. He’s had all the time in the world to sell his message to Pennsylvania voters.

Pennsylvania Democratic Primary

With that said, let’s see what Mr. McIntyre defines as victory:

Defining Hillary Clinton Victory Democratic Primary Election Season

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  1. Pingback by Democratic Primary Election Map: Clinton’s Pennsylvania Win Keeps Her Alive… : Jutia Group on 23 April 2008:

    [...] Win Keeps Her Alive… April 23rd, 2008 • Related • Filed Under April 21, 2008 — Pennsylvania Primary Results: What will make or break Hillary Clinton? (0) Filed Under: Politics & Government Tags: ‘08 pensylvania • 2008 Democratic Primary [...]

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