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Obama/Clinton: Super Tuesday Showdown

Super Tuesday 2008

Is Obama’s South Carolina Victory Enough?
Following Barack Obama’s landslide victory in the South Carolina primary last Saturday, it would appear to the average person that he has a fighting shot at the title bout with whomever the Republicans nominate for president in ’08.

However, it is important to note that Hillary Clinton’s support and established connections on a national scale still provide her with a favorable advantage from this point forward. No longer will the ground game be effective on the scale seen in Iowa and New Hampshire. Candidates will now have to rely on massive amounts of money and name recognition to help propel them to the nomination.

Obama vs. Clinton
Both Obama and Clinton have scored key wins in what has been perceived by many to be a stalemate for the Democratic presidential nod. Obama has taken Iowa and South Carolina, while Clinton edged out victories in New Hampshire and Nevada (Michigan being stripped of its delegates).

Eventually, one candidate will begin to take his or her campaign to the next level. The upcoming battle in Florida is somewhat meaningless for the Democrats, due to the fact that they too have been stripped of their delegates for pushing their primary date sooner. Clinton is the heavy favorite in the state and may be able to score a psychological victory among voters nationwide and tout the fact she has more appeal in key swing states. Currently, Clinton enjoys an average advantage of 18.2% in the state amongst recent polling from Quinnipiac, Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, and Mason-Dixon.

Although the current polling does not account for any added momentum Obama received from his latest win in South Carolina, it is hard to imagine a scenario where he overcomes the double-digit gap that favors Clinton in the states which award the most delegates. Clinton is up in New York by 22.9%, California by 12.5%, New Jersey by 18%, and nationally by 10.2%. This is a significant obstacle to overcome, especially when you consider that these states represent a smaller block of black voters who overwhelmingly threw their support to Obama in South Carolina.

Obama is making the right moves, but it is likely to be too little, too late. Recent endorsements by John Kerry, Caroline Kennedy, and now Ted Kennedy will help to decrease those margins, but we’ll have to see if it will be enough to move voters in Obama’s direction.

It’s hard not to be somewhat inspired when Caroline Kennedy stated that she saw similar characteristics between Obama and John F. Kennedy. In a recent New York Times column titled, “A President like my Father,” Caroline stated:

“I have never had a president who inspired me the way people tell me that my father inspired them. But for the first time, I believe I have found the man who could be that president — not just for me, but for a new generation of Americans.”

These are significant endorsements that will only help to elevate the Clinton-Obama rivalry leading into February 5th Super Tuesday when the greatest number of states will hold primary elections to select delegates to the national convention.

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