I could not have said it better myself:

“I think this recession mumbo jumbo is way out of line. It is being pushed on the radio and TV, but out in the real world we are not seeing it.”

I heard that line as I was chatting with the owner of a tourism company. The president of a publicly traded company uttered it as he called the man I was speaking with to cancel his $60,000 employee-incentive vacation. He said he just got done laying off scores of workers and his shareholders would hang him if he took the trip.

Once I found out what industry his company was involved in, it all made sense. As a supply distributor, he was smack dab in the middle of the housing market. A countrywide slowdown has threatened his growth. After a few years of growth thanks to a housing boom and Katrina rebuilds, it was time to trim the fat.

At first glance, I thought the situation was grim. But that only lasted a few questions into a thorough grilling of the tourism company owner. He told me his client who cancelled was certain the economy was on track and that even the slowing housing industry will be fine. He canceled his trip merely to avoid a public relations fiasco.

It makes sense. I spent most of yesterday chatting with tourism experts. They were having few problems finding willing vacationers and for most people, a slowing economy was not even a concern. This so-called recession really could be the result of media-induced hype.

Right now, the equities market is enduring a bit of strength. After a rough patch, earnings reports are starting to look a bit brighter. Recently, Microsoft reported better-than-expected results. A lot of the negativity spewed by the mainstream media is proving to be overdone or just plain untrue.

The real test will take place over the next few weeks. My signals and clues say this is a great buying opportunity. A strong rebound is imminent. The housing market has slowed, but it is only affecting a small portion of the economy. Most companies are doing just fine. Major layoffs and even closures, which would be the real cause of a recession, are nowhere on the horizon.

If the bears have scared you out of the market. Get back in it. The bulls are beginning to congregate and a full-on rally is just around the corner. The real economic experts – the folks signing the paychecks — have spoken. Do not believe the hype.

Andrew Snyder
Today’s Financial News